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The Situation of China's Coal Demand in 2011

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The Situation of China's Coal Demand in 2011

Post  vaseline on Wed Jul 06, 2011 10:10 pm

Recently, experts have made research on China's coal demand in the recent years. The statistics show that during the latest 10 years, the lowest growth rate of China's coal demand was 8.1%, and the average rate was 9.4%. The experts expect the growth rate of China's coal demand in 2011 will be 10.6%.

Although currently a lot of green energy resources (such as ethanol gasoline), have lead to the decrease of coal demand in China. However, it is expected that the coal demand will still grow from 3.43 billion tons in 2010 to 3.8 billion tons in 2011, while the coal production capacity in 2011 is only 37 million tons. Therefore, next year, the domestic coal market will be in short supply.

The survey has showed that, currently, the growth rate of China's coal supply tends to slow down, which makes it unable to meet the demand for coal next year. First of all, the tonnage expenditure grows rapidly, while the growth rate of coal investment has slowed down. The large number of integrated investment in 2008 is unable to release the production capacity in 2011. It is expected that in 2011, the production capacity will grow to 3.74 billion tons. Secondly, transport bottlenecks still exist, which may affect the transfer of 40 million tons of coal in 2011. It is expected the effective supply of coal in 2011 will be 3.7 billion tons. In 2011, the amount of coal transfer will increase by 180 million tons, while the transport capacity of rail and road is only 140 million tons. As a result, there is still a shortage of transport capacity for 40 million tons of coal.

In terms of investment, experts believe that the integration of small coal mines will continue to promote the profit margins of the coal industry. During the economic crisis in 1998, influenced by the overcapacity in coal industry, China shut down a large number of small coal mines. In 2003, our country found that the coal supply was in shortage, so it began to encourage the development of private coal. The output of the entire industry grew at a rate more than 20% every year. In 2005, the problem of overcapacity of the entire coal industry was very serious, so China began to shut down small coal mines again. The same thing happened in 2009. Had experienced a significant downturn in demand in 2008, coal price fell rapidly. However, after a comprehensive integration of coal in Shanxi, coal supply fell by over 100 million tons.

In a word, experts believe that the increasing of the integration and concentration of coal industry will continue to increase the profits of coal industry.


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